Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 48.804356 57.376812 66.751100 77.728964 90.196204 103.878119 119.991229
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 36.030757 47.460987 61.149742 78.599971 100.087699 125.506908 157.659593
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 27.330696 39.471413 55.101481 76.378930 104.225794 139.034982 185.383391
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 22.318772 34.855075 52.002272 76.635186 110.488505 154.682353 215.909992
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 18.919175 31.681939 50.096091 77.808838 117.510181 171.254319 248.194337
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.600338 26.331715 44.232829 72.496717 114.729454 174.012963 261.675254
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.877394 24.679006 43.522565 74.432498 122.171019 191.093883 295.570230
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.920320 22.282256 41.282961 73.670908 125.360608 202.076694 321.207580
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.297616 22.087256 42.535732 78.448791 137.229400 226.323528 367.223095
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.318162 19.064411 38.618378 74.317279 134.668767 228.619306 380.653632
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.631658 18.400215 38.718136 76.900311 143.010024 247.953862 420.634779
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.367810 18.541172 40.272868 82.103057 155.964686 275.097448 473.797172
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.749054 17.968270 40.670283 85.740874 167.346196 301.657563 529.531778
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.846892 16.623991 39.450380 86.392622 173.823591 321.010332 575.504676
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.803588 14.708084 36.779647 83.957117 174.559234 330.827345 606.532238
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.154457 13.593665 35.594728 84.231725 180.134608 349.004705 652.084261
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.671841 12.791715 34.957827 85.502600 187.593467 370.755390 704.577209
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.826584 10.754005 31.173011 79.747100 181.094870 367.532919 714.336044
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.552753 10.307371 31.067701 81.845019 190.046156 392.325186 773.541777
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.171598 9.416573 29.719846 81.019719 193.037224 406.370603 814.475914
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.101085 9.531318 30.957753 86.195596 208.634370 444.468408 899.732490
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.657671 8.214070 28.194200 81.720167 203.779127 443.935571 915.483256
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.532097 8.018583 28.463595 84.518564 214.530361 473.583330 987.358465